Dead-Ball Merchants: Where the Premier League's xG Really Comes From
Correction - Oct 9, 2026. The first version of this piece was built on a contaminated sample: cup matches had leaked into the league data, two clubs (Hull City, Ipswich Town) were missing entirely, and several teams carried the wrong number of games. Every number below has been recomputed from 50 Premier League matches - matchweeks 1–5, league games only, all 20 clubs with 5 games each. We have also added automated sample-integrity checks to our publishing process so this cannot happen again.
Dead-ball merchants
Just under a quarter of everything the Premier League creates comes from a dead ball. Corners, free kicks, the rehearsed routines: 23.6% of the league's 151.5 expected goals this season started with the ball stationary. That is the league average. The interesting part is who lives above it - and who barely touches it.
Because at the extremes, set pieces are not a garnish. They are the entire attack.
Leeds United get 41.0% of their xG from set pieces - the highest share in the league. Nearly half of everything Leeds create comes from dead balls. Brentford (38.5%) and Tottenham Hotspur (37.8%) are right behind them. Here is Tottenham's problem: they have scored 2 goals from 5.00 xG (-3.00), among the coldest finishing in the division. Strip out the set pieces and their open-play attack is producing about 0.62 xG per game. Tottenham are a set-piece team that cannot finish set pieces, built on a route to goal they keep wasting.
They are not alone in the dead-ball economy. Sunderland (32.6%), newly promoted Hull City (31.2%), and Coventry City (30.9%) all lean on dead balls for nearly a third of their threat. Brentford are the model citizens of the group: 10 goals from 9.90 xG, finishing exactly at expectation. Leeds are roughly break-even too (7 from 7.72). Coventry are not: 1 goal from 4.87 xG - the coldest finishing in the division - and nearly a third of that xG arrived via set pieces they are not converting.
Then there are the open-play purists. Ipswich Town create 94.8% of their xG from open play - 5.2% from set pieces, the lowest share in the league. Aston Villa (8.5%) and Fulham (12.4%) barely use dead balls either. At the other end of the table, Brighton (19.8%) are thriving without the rehearsed stuff: 16 goals from 11.48 xG (+4.52, the league's hottest finishers).
The full table
Share of each team's xG from set pieces, five matchweeks in. Every club has played exactly 5 league games.
| Team | Games | xG | Set-piece share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United | 5 | 7.72 | 41.0% |
| Brentford | 5 | 9.90 | 38.5% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 5 | 5.00 | 37.8% |
| Sunderland | 5 | 9.77 | 32.6% |
| Hull City | 5 | 5.27 | 31.2% |
| Coventry City | 5 | 4.87 | 30.9% |
| Bournemouth | 5 | 6.72 | 28.3% |
| Manchester City | 5 | 10.50 | 24.6% |
| Chelsea | 5 | 7.29 | 24.2% |
| Liverpool | 5 | 8.34 | 23.4% |
| Nottingham Forest | 5 | 7.26 | 22.7% |
| Arsenal | 5 | 8.48 | 21.3% |
| Newcastle United | 5 | 5.32 | 20.9% |
| Everton | 5 | 7.32 | 20.7% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 5 | 11.48 | 19.8% |
| Crystal Palace | 5 | 6.27 | 15.9% |
| Manchester United | 5 | 9.89 | 12.7% |
| Fulham | 5 | 7.74 | 12.4% |
| Aston Villa | 5 | 4.62 | 8.5% |
| Ipswich Town | 5 | 7.72 | 5.2% |
Method note: set pieces = Opta set-play xG (corners, free kicks, throw-in routines); penalties counted separately in the total. Shares are of all xG including penalties.
What to do with this
Three things worth acting on before the weekend's nine games:
1. Tottenham's best route to goal is the one they keep missing. Spurs visit Manchester United on Saturday (12.7% set-piece share - United barely create from dead balls, so this is not a set-piece shootout). If Spurs score at Old Trafford, the odds say it starts with a stationary ball. The colder their finishing stays, the more the value sits on unders and on United's open-play attackers.
2. Fade the hot finishers, back the cold ones - with a set-piece filter. Brighton (+4.52) and Newcastle (+3.68) are finishing far above their xG; Coventry (-3.87) and Sunderland (-3.77) far below. Sunderland host Brighton on Saturday: among the league's coldest finishers against its hottest, and Sunderland lean on set pieces (32.6%) while Brighton barely do (19.8%). If Sunderland's finishing regresses upward anywhere, it is from a corner.
3. Arsenal vs Leeds is a style collision. Saturday's game pits one of the league's purest open-play attacks (Arsenal, 21.3% set pieces) against its heaviest dead-ball side (Leeds, 41.0%). Games between extremes produce the most predictable game states: Arsenal dominating the ball, Leeds living off set plays. That is a corners and cards shape, not just a scoreline.
Finishing runs this hot do not survive contact with a larger sample. Dead-ball reliance, on the other hand, is a choice - and choices persist.