Nobody's Winning at Home This Season
The story in one line: Through six weeks of the 2026/27 Premier League, home teams have won barely more games than they have drawn, even though they create clearly better chances. The home edge is in the xG; it is not in the points.
The numbers
Home teams have won 21 games and drawn 18; away teams are only a few wins behind.
Home against away, Premier League 2026/27, matchweeks 1-6, 56 games
| Home teams | Away teams | |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 56 | 56 |
| Won | 21 (37.5%) | 17 (30.4%) |
| Drawn | 18 (32.1%) | 18 (32.1%) |
| xG created per game | 1.60 | 1.39 |
| Goals per game | 1.57 | 1.30 |
| Points per game | 1.45 | 1.23 |
Source: Opta expected goals and official scores, 56 Premier League matches (Aug 21 to Oct 10, 2026), Dribble API, Oct 14, 2026
Read that again: home sides drew 18 games and won 21. They created 15% more expected goals than the visitors (89.8 to 77.9 across the 56 games), and that chance edge is worth just 0.22 points per game. A typical Premier League home edge runs close to double that.
Finishing is not the problem. Home teams scored 88 goals from 89.8 xG; away teams scored 73 from 77.9. The hosts are not wasting their chances. They are sharing them: one in every three games ends level, a draw rate that turns home comfort into half points.
The home record is a team trait
The clubs making a mockery of home advantage are not random. Crystal Palace have zero points from two home games (and four from three away). Coventry City also have zero from two at home (and three from three away). Fulham, Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest, and Tottenham each have one point from three home games. Villa and Forest, two sides that normally lean on their grounds, are collecting more on the road.
At the other end, the top of the table is a home-fortress leaderboard. Arsenal and Manchester City are perfect at home: nine points from three games each. Brighton, Brentford, Chelsea, and Everton have seven from three. The teams winning this league are the teams winning at home; the gap between them and everyone else is that everyone else has forgotten how.
What it means
Six weeks is a small sample, and the draw rate (32%) will probably cool. But the pattern has a mechanism, not just noise: home teams are creating (1.60 xG/game is a healthy number), scoring at roughly the chances' value, and still only converting that into 37.5% wins. If you are pricing the rest of the season on "home team wins" as a default, the first 56 games say to stop. The draw is the new home banker.
Where the numbers come from
Every figure is computed from Opta expected goals and official scores for all 56 played Premier League 2026/27 league matches (matchweeks 1-6, Aug 21 to Oct 10, 2026), queried live from the Dribble API on Oct 14, 2026. No pundit vibes, no eye test.
Want the underlying data? The same xG feeds behind this piece are available as BigQuery tables, API endpoints, and downloadable files. See plans and pricing