Chelsea Can't Stop Scoring. Nottingham Forest Can't Buy a Goal.
The story in one line: Six weeks into the 2026/27 Premier League, the gap between the league's hottest and coldest finishers is more than 12 goals: Chelsea have scored 15 from 8.39 expected goals, while Nottingham Forest have managed just 5 from 10.60. Finishing, not chance creation, is deciding this season's early table.
The finishing table
Ranked by goals minus expected goals (all 20 clubs, six games each):
Chelsea have scored 6.61 goals more than their chances were worth; Nottingham Forest 5.60 fewer.
Goals minus expected goals, Premier League 2026/27, matchweeks 1-6, all 20 clubs, six games each
| Club | Goals | xG | Finishing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 15 | 8.39 | +6.61 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 18 | 12.90 | +5.10 |
| Manchester City | 16 | 11.78 | +4.22 |
| Newcastle United | 10 | 7.16 | +2.84 |
| Hull City | 8 | 6.60 | +1.40 |
| Brentford | 12 | 10.96 | +1.04 |
| Crystal Palace | 9 | 8.68 | +0.32 |
| Ipswich Town | 9 | 8.87 | +0.13 |
| Leeds United | 8 | 8.34 | -0.34 |
| Arsenal | 10 | 10.80 | -0.80 |
| Aston Villa | 6 | 6.90 | -0.90 |
| Everton | 8 | 9.00 | -1.00 |
| Bournemouth | 7 | 8.09 | -1.09 |
| Coventry City | 5 | 6.34 | -1.34 |
| Manchester United | 9 | 10.69 | -1.69 |
| Liverpool | 7 | 9.28 | -2.28 |
| Fulham | 6 | 9.56 | -3.56 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 3 | 6.62 | -3.62 |
| Sunderland | 6 | 10.49 | -4.49 |
| Nottingham Forest | 5 | 10.60 | -5.60 |
Source: Opta expected goals and official scores, 60 Premier League matches (Aug 21 to Oct 12, 2026), Dribble API, Oct 16, 2026
Chelsea: the hottest streak in the league
Chelsea's +6.61 is the extreme outlier of the season so far. They average 2.5 goals per game from 1.40 xG per game, a conversion rate no attack sustains. The signature night was the 5-1 demolition of Bournemouth: five goals from 1.10 xG. A week earlier they beat Fulham 3-2 from 2.24 xG, and they put four past Brighton from 2.93. It is not one lucky afternoon; it is six weeks of finishing above the chances, every week.
The caution sits inside the same numbers. Chelsea create the 14th-most chances in the league (8.39 xG, below Brentford, Arsenal, Manchester United, and Forest). Their attack is mid-table by chance creation and top-two by goals. When the finishing cools toward the chances, the goals column follows.
Nottingham Forest: the league's best chances, wasted
Forest are the mirror image, and the more interesting team. Their 10.60 xG is the sixth-best chance creation in the league, ahead of Sunderland, Everton, and Liverpool. Their five goals are the joint second-fewest. They have missed 17 big chances in six games, more than any other club.
The low point came last weekend at Crystal Palace: Forest created 3.34 expected goals, took 24 shots, missed seven big chances, and scored once in a 3-1 defeat. Palace, meanwhile, scored three from 2.41 xG. It was the single biggest underperformance by any team in any match this season.
The pattern is not one bad day. Forest blanked three times in six games (0-1 to Leeds, 0-0 with Spurs, 0-1 to Coventry) while creating 2.68 xG across those three matches. The chances are real and repeatable. The finishing is the outlier.
What to watch
Two teams sit on finishing streaks that history says do not last: Chelsea 6.61 goals above their chances, Forest 5.60 below. The market prices teams on goals, not on xG, which means both are currently mispriced in opposite directions. Watch the next three weeks: if Forest's finishing moves halfway toward their chance creation, they look like a top-half attack; if Chelsea's moves halfway toward theirs, the goals column starts to look ordinary. The finishing table is the early-season tell.
Where the numbers come from
Every figure is computed from Opta expected goals, big-chance records, and official scores for all 60 played Premier League 2026/27 league matches (matchweeks 1-6, Aug 21 to Oct 12, 2026), queried live from the Dribble API on Oct 16, 2026. Goals of zero are recorded as null in the feed and normalized to 0, reconciled against official match scores (120/120 team rows matched, zero mismatches). No pundit vibes, no eye test.
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