Golden chances, wasted
Sunderland have missed 15 big chances in five games. Three golden opportunities squandered per match, the worst record in the Premier League, and five more efforts crashed off the woodwork for good measure. They have scored 6 goals from 9.77 expected goals. No team in the division is wasting more.
A big chance, in Opta's definition, is the kind of opening a professional is expected to bury: one-on-ones, tap-ins, free headers from six yards. Across the league's first five matchweeks, teams missed 172 of them, an average of 1.72 per team per game. Sunderland are missing nearly double that rate. Their finishing is not just cold. It is historically profligate.
They are not alone at the bottom of the composure table. Coventry City have scored once from 4.87 xG, the worst goals-minus-xG in the league at -3.87, after missing 6 big chances of their own. Nottingham Forest are at -3.26 (4 goals from 7.26 xG, 10 big chances missed). Tottenham sit on -3.00 (2 from 5.00 xG, 9 missed). And Manchester United lead the league in a statistic nobody wants: 6 woodwork hits in five games, inches away from a completely different season, on top of 10 missed big chances.
The full table
Big chances missed and woodwork hits, five matchweeks in, sorted by goals minus xG:
Coventry have the league's worst finishing at -3.87; Sunderland have missed 15 big chances in five games.
Goals minus expected goals, Premier League 2026/27, matchweeks 1-5. Hover a club for its big chances missed and woodwork.
| Team | Goals | xG | G-xG | Big chances missed | Woodwork |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry City | 1 | 4.87 | -3.87 | 6 | 0 |
| Sunderland | 6 | 9.77 | -3.77 | 15 | 5 |
| Nottingham Forest | 4 | 7.26 | -3.26 | 10 | 3 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 5.00 | -3.00 | 9 | 0 |
| Fulham | 5 | 7.74 | -2.74 | 8 | 0 |
| Manchester United | 8 | 9.89 | -1.89 | 10 | 6 |
| Liverpool | 7 | 8.34 | -1.34 | 6 | 0 |
| Everton | 6 | 7.32 | -1.32 | 10 | 0 |
| Leeds United | 7 | 7.72 | -0.72 | 7 | 1 |
| Ipswich Town | 7 | 7.72 | -0.72 | 4 | 1 |
| Bournemouth | 6 | 6.72 | -0.72 | 12 | 2 |
| Aston Villa | 4 | 4.62 | -0.62 | 4 | 2 |
| Arsenal | 8 | 8.48 | -0.48 | 8 | 0 |
| Crystal Palace | 6 | 6.27 | -0.27 | 13 | 3 |
| Brentford | 10 | 9.90 | +0.10 | 8 | 1 |
| Hull City | 6 | 5.27 | +0.73 | 6 | 3 |
| Manchester City | 13 | 10.50 | +2.50 | 10 | 2 |
| Chelsea | 10 | 7.29 | +2.71 | 6 | 1 |
| Newcastle United | 9 | 5.32 | +3.68 | 7 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 16 | 11.48 | +4.52 | 13 | 3 |
Source: Opta team stats and official scores, 50 Premier League matches (Aug 21 to Sep 20, 2026), Dribble API
The paradox at the top of the table is worth a second look. Brighton are the league's hottest finishers (+4.52) while also missing 13 big chances, the joint-second most. Their finishing runs hot everywhere except the chances that look easiest. Finishing variance is noisy; chance creation is the signal. Brighton create plenty (11.48 xG, second most in the league). The goals will keep coming even when the spectacular ones stop flying in.
What to watch this weekend
Matchweek 6 (Oct 10-12) serves up the bottlers against the clinical, three times over:
1. Sunderland vs Brighton, Saturday: the waste against the ruthless. The league's most wasteful attack (-3.77, 15 big chances missed, 5 woodwork) hosts its most clinical (+4.52). If Sunderland's finishing regresses even halfway to their chance creation, this is not the mismatch the table suggests. If it does not, Brighton only need one good opening.
2. Manchester United vs Tottenham, Saturday: the woodwork derby. United have hit the frame 6 times, Spurs have missed 9 big chances and scored twice all season. Two attacks that keep doing everything except score. The first goal in this game is worth more than usual: it forces the other wasteful side to chase.
3. Coventry vs Newcastle, Monday: the due against the overdeliverers. Coventry's one goal from 4.87 xG is the league's worst return; Newcastle's 9 from 5.32 is its second best. When the worst finishers meet the second-hottest, the value is rarely on the form team repeating the trick.
Missed big chances do not predict the next miss. But 15 in five games is not bad luck anymore. It is a team-wide trait, and traits persist longer than weekends.
Where the numbers come from
Every figure is computed from Opta team stats and official scores for 50 played Premier League 2026/27 matches (matchweeks 1-5, Aug 21 - Sep 20, 2026), via the Dribble API team_matches and matches datasets. Big chances and woodwork hits are Opta-defined event counts, summed per team. No pundit vibes, no eye test.
Want the underlying data? The same Opta feeds behind this piece, including big-chance and shot-type splits, are available as BigQuery tables, API endpoints, and downloadable files. See plans and pricing