Monte Carlo · Qualification Scenarios

Run the tournamentten thousand times.

Simulate thousands of virtual tournaments to estimate who finishes where, who tops each group, and who lifts the trophy. Or switch to qualification scenarios and map every remaining win/draw/lose combination that sends a nation through.

Each run plays all six group matches with Poisson-distributed goals scaled by team strength, then sorts on points → goal difference → goals for. 10,000 runs aggregated.

Group A

Mexico · South Africa · South Korea · Czechia

Team	FIFA Rank	Strength
Mexico	16	1656
South Africa	—	1300
South Korea	23	1633
Czechia	35	1540